The chart below illustrates the evolution of RFS2 cellulosic biofuel RIN volume targets, nominal production capacity, and actual production volumes. Data are plotted on a log scale, so a straight line would indicate a steady rate of exponential growth. Previous posts describing the approach can be found here, here, and here.
Latest update: September 7, 2014
Note – see here for a discussion of RIN generation trends in 2014
- The original RFS targets are taken directly from the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) legislation, and revised targets are updated as they are announced by EPA (for example, here). Dotted lines show proposed volume revisions that have yet to be finalized.
- Actual RIN production volumes are taken from the EPA EMTS Informational Data page. Dotted lines represent projections for the remainder of the year based on a simple extrapolation of monthly average production figures reported so far for that calendar year.
- Total national installed nameplate production capacity estimates are assembled from three different sources (all last accessed/updated Sept 2013):
- the Biomass Digest (BD) Advanced Biofuels & Chemicals Project Database
- the Environmental Entrepreneurs (E2, affiliated with NRDC) Advanced Biofuel Market Report 2013
- an informal analysis by the authors of the Energy and the Future blog of the nominal capacity of five high-profile facilities in operation or under construction- KiOR, Ineos, Poet, Dupont, and Abengoa, as described here (see also a recent summary of the newest facilities in Nature)