They also have some estimates of the RIN stocks which I didn’t know existed and are useful for other analysis. According to the article, these stocks will run out in 2014 and:
“Our analysis leads directly to the conclusion that full implementation of the RFS in 2013-2015 leads to an unprecedented boom in domestic biodiesel production.”
Can we just use more ethanol in the form of E15 or E85?
“…However, even this very large increase in ethanol consumption would not necessarily slow the projected biodiesel boom since the advanced RFS mandate increases so sharply.”
Can the EPA just reduce the RFS mandate?
“The EPA has not elected to write down the total RFS mandate or the total advanced mandate even though the cellulosic component has been written down. This effectively means that the cellulosic mandate has been transferred to biodiesel and Brazilian ethanol imports…The EPA has the statutory authority to write the advanced mandate down to at least the existing biodiesel production capacity if not further. This may be the only realistic path for implementing the RFS in the next several years.”
Interesting to see what will happen in the next couple years!